Brazil is going to have startling growth next year as it emerges from the crisis said President Lula da Silva last month. The OECD has predicted 4% economic growth for Brazil which shows evidence that Brazil is one of the first economies to recover from the economic slump in an resounding way.
State oil company Petrobras discovered vast deepwater reserves that it is developing with a five-year, $174 billion investment program. The goal is to double Brazil’s production, to 3.5 million barrels a day, by 2012, making the country a top oil exporter, in line with many Middle Eastern countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, increasing the wealth in the country immensely. The United States has agreed to provide as much as $10 billion in financing to go towards the development of these oil fields. Brazil will reap tremendous benefits from this oil exploration and avoid over-reliance on oil because it made its discoveries after its economy had diversified and industrialised.
The growing middle classes and consequent increasing domestic consumption of the BRIC nations is creating greater demand for exports. While US consumers continue to tighten their purse strings, Brazil, Russia, India and China will be responsible for around 50% of worldwide export demand.
The 2014 World Cup has resulted in a Government programme of expenditure, in excess of $250 million on roads, airports, power generation and sanitation coupled with a huge spend on tourism that has resulted in international tourists increasing year on year from 1.9 million in 1995, to in excess of 5.2 million in 2008.
The Brazil property market is booming. Mortgage lending around the world as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Brazil where it is only 2.5%. In the US it accounts for 68% with Germany and Spain at 45% and other developing nations such as Mexico and Chile at 11% and 20% respectively. Although there was a worldwide economic crisis mortgage lending in Brazil rose 41% last year, while other countries lending contracted. Caixa Economica Federal lent 19 Billion Reais in 2008 and expects to lend 26 billion Reais in 2009. This compared to 5 billion Reais in 2005.
Brazil has a huge export industry, yet this only accounts for 12% of its $1.5 trillion economy. With Brazils middle class now making up more than half its 190 million-strong population, the domestic consumer market is booming. Retail spending has increased heavily this year from 2008 with groups such as Whirlpool, which has a 40% share of the white goods market, recently announcing 20% increases in sales year on year. Other groups have been quick to jump on board the household goods train. Over the next five years, well see a doubling of sales of durable goods in Brazil, said Jos Roberto Tambasco recently. The vice-president for operations of Pao do Aucar, which turned over $8.9 billion in 2008, spoke in the wake of the supermarket giants strategic acquisition of appliance retailer Ponto Frio for $422, providing the group with a further 458 outlets countrywide to meet the burgeoning demand for household appliances.